Ebola simulation part 1: early outbreak assessment

#simulation #response #ebola #epicurve #reproduction number

This practical simulates the early assessment and reconstruction of an Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak. It introduces various aspects of analysis of the early stage of an outbreak, including contact tracing data, epicurves, growth rate estimation from log-linear models, and more refined estimates of transmissibility. A follow-up practical will provide an introduction to transmission chain reconstruction using outbreaker2. A novel EVD outbreak in Ankh, Republic of Morporkia A new EVD outbreak has been notified in the small city of Ankh, located in the Northern, rural district of the Republic of Morporkia. ...

TB: exploring the case of TB elimination with a simple compartmental model

#tuberculosis

Eliminating tuberculosis (TB) is now a priority in the Global Health agenda. Is it achievable? How and when could this happen? Though still uncertain, it is an ongoing discussion in the field. In this practical, we will illustrate important concepts of TB epidemiology with a simple compartmental model and assess the interventions required to achieve elimination thresholds and End TB goals set by the World Health Organization (WHO). Core concepts The following concepts will be developed during the practical: ...

Real-time outbreak analysis: Ebola as a case study - part 3

#simulation #response #ebola #epicurve #reproduction number

Introduction This practical is the third (and last) part of a practical which simulates the early assessment and reconstruction of an Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak. Please make sure you have gone through part 1 and part 2 before starting part 3. In part 3 of the practical, we give an introduction to transmission chain reconstruction using outbreaker2. Note: This practical is derived from earlier practicals called Ebola simulation part 1: early outbreak assessment and Ebola simulation part 2: outbreak reconstruction ...

Real-time outbreak analysis: Ebola as a case study - part 2

#simulation #response #ebola #epicurve #reproduction number

Introduction This practical is the second (out of three) part of a practical which simulates the early assessment and reconstruction of an Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak. Please make sure you have gone through part 1 before starting part 2. In part 2 of the practical, we introduce various aspects of analysis of the early stage of an outbreak, including growth rate estimation, contact tracing data, delays, and estimates of transmissibility. ...

Real-time outbreak analysis: Ebola as a case study - part 1

#simulation #response #ebola #epicurve #reproduction number

Introduction This practical (in three parts) simulates the early assessment and reconstruction of an Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak. It introduces various aspects of analysis of the early stage of an outbreak, including case fatality ratio (CFR), epicurves (part 1), growth rate estimation, contact tracing data, delays, and estimates of transmissibility (part 2), as well as transmission chain reconstruction using outbreaker2 (part 3). Note: This practical is derived from earlier practicals called Ebola simulation part 1: early outbreak assessment and Ebola simulation part 2: outbreak reconstruction ...

Análisis de brotes en tiempo real: el ébola como estudio de caso - parte 2

#simulation #response #ebola #epicurve #reproduction number #Spanish

Introducción Esta práctica es la segunda parte (de tres) de una práctica que simula la evaluación temprana y la reconstrucción de un brote de enfermedad por el virus del Ébola (EVE). Asegúrese de haber pasado por la parte 1 antes de comenzar la parte 2. En la parte 2 de la práctica, presentamos varios aspectos del análisis de la etapa inicial de un brote, incluida la estimación de la tasa de crecimiento, los datos del rastreo de contactos, los atrasos y las estimaciones de transmisibilidad. ...