Ebola

This practical simulates the early assessment and reconstruction of an Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak. It introduces various aspects of analysis of the early stage of an outbreak, including contact tracing data, epicurves, growth rate estimation from log-linear models, and more refined estimates of transmissibility. A follow-up practical will provide an introduction to transmission chain reconstruction using outbreaker2. A novel EVD outbreak in Ankh, Republic of Morporkia A new EVD outbreak has been notified in the small city of Ankh, located in the Northern, rural district of the Republic of Morporkia. ...

This short lecture explores the methodologies to produce short term projections of incidence based on estimated transmissibility of a pathogen. It covers various aspects around projections, forecasting and predictions. The example of the dynamics of Ebola is used. Slides PDF slides (click the image below) PPTX slides (click the image below) About this document Contributors Pierre Nouvellet: initial version Contributions are welcome via pull requests. ...

Introduction This practical is the third (and last) part of a practical which simulates the early assessment and reconstruction of an Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak. Please make sure you have gone through part 1 and part 2 before starting part 3. In part 3 of the practical, we give an introduction to transmission chain reconstruction using outbreaker2. Note: This practical is derived from earlier practicals called Ebola simulation part 1: early outbreak assessment and Ebola simulation part 2: outbreak reconstruction ...

Introduction This practical is the second (out of three) part of a practical which simulates the early assessment and reconstruction of an Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak. Please make sure you have gone through part 1 before starting part 2. In part 2 of the practical, we introduce various aspects of analysis of the early stage of an outbreak, including growth rate estimation, contact tracing data, delays, and estimates of transmissibility. ...

Introduction This practical (in three parts) simulates the early assessment and reconstruction of an Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak. It introduces various aspects of analysis of the early stage of an outbreak, including case fatality ratio (CFR), epicurves (part 1), growth rate estimation, contact tracing data, delays, and estimates of transmissibility (part 2), as well as transmission chain reconstruction using outbreaker2 (part 3). Note: This practical is derived from earlier practicals called Ebola simulation part 1: early outbreak assessment and Ebola simulation part 2: outbreak reconstruction ...

Introducción Esta práctica es la segunda parte (de tres) de una práctica que simula la evaluación temprana y la reconstrucción de un brote de enfermedad por el virus del Ébola (EVE). Asegúrese de haber pasado por la parte 1 antes de comenzar la parte 2. En la parte 2 de la práctica, presentamos varios aspectos del análisis de la etapa inicial de un brote, incluida la estimación de la tasa de crecimiento, los datos del rastreo de contactos, los atrasos y las estimaciones de transmisibilidad. ...