Forecasting

This short lecture gives a primer on some methodological aspects of outbreak analysis. It includes content on the estimation of key delays (e.g. incubation period, serial interval) and the characterisation of the underlying distributions, the estimation of growth rates, doubling times, of the basic reproduction number and simple short-term forecasting. Slides Click on the image below to access the slides: About this document Contributors Thibaut Jombart: initial version Contributions are welcome via pull requests. ...

This short lecture explores the methodologies to produce short term projections of incidence based on estimated transmissibility of a pathogen. It covers various aspects around projections, forecasting and predictions. The example of the dynamics of Ebola is used. Slides PDF slides (click the image below) PPTX slides (click the image below) About this document Contributors Pierre Nouvellet: initial version Contributions are welcome via pull requests. ...

This short lecture gives a primer on how modelling can help inform public health response. It focuses on few examples where modelling has been used to integrate various types of information and help implement control or raise situational awarness. Slides Click on the image below to access the slides: About this document Contributors Pierre Nouvellet: initial version Contributions are welcome via pull requests. The source file can be found here. ...